The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

In 2019, the British internet-based market research firm YouGov conducted a Twitter survey among individuals to understand the confidence level of the general population. The question states: If they were playing the very best tennis, would they be able to score a point off Serina Williams?

The survey results were shocking. One in eight British men believed they would be able to score a point against 23-time grand slam tennis champion Serena Williams. But most of the club players believe that even if they took six months to train themselves would still not even touch the ball. The average Serena serve speed was 171.2 km/h once she topped 206.4 km/h at the 2013 US open.

Why would people with little knowledge/skill believe that they could score a point against Williams even if they know that they are not capable in the first place? This cognitive bias is called the Dunning Kruger effect. The concept was discovered by the Psychologist - David Dunning & Justin Kruger.

It states that people who perform low are not good at accepting criticism and often don't show interest in self-improvement. The first principle is to understand our circle of competence. Learning can't happen by thinking we already know. Growth won't take place by convincing ourselves the best.

The quote worth gold from my man, Richard Feynman - The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.